Waiting for the Big Five

Source: Thisday News

Nseobong Okon-Ekong and Segun James examine the role of an exclusive group of influential Nigerians whose enormous powers can determine who takes the Peoples Democratic Party presidential ticket

Today, August 27 is the anniversary of the military that installed Gen. Ibrahim Babangida as the first and only military president in Nigeria. While there will be no overt party, a small group of Nigerians known as the ‘IBB Boys’ will gather round the former Nigerian leader to exchange thoughts on the direction of governance in the country, more so that the anniversary comes 10 days after Babangida’s August 17 birthday. The IBB Boys include civilians who were close to Babangida. The majority members of this group were originally in the who were originally in the military but have since retired, while a couple of them are still on the military.

At the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, some of the IBB Boys became governors, while a good number went into the federal legislature to consolidate their hold on power and continue to entrench Babangida’s legacy.
Babangida is said to continue to have his finger on governance, one way or another. For instance, on the day that former President Goodluck Jonathan made the historic call conceding victory to President Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 presidential election, one of the persons who spurred him to accept defeat was former Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar-the man who birthed Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. Indeed, there were other pessimists who were clamouring for a showdown, but Jonathan earned a glorious mention in history for being the first Nigerian leader to relinquish power to an opponent from another party.

As the country moves close to another general election, the major opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is still shopping for a presidential candidate to fly its flag.

Unlike the party in power at the cnetre, the All Progressives Congress (APC), where it is taken that President Muhammadu Buhari would fly the party’s presidential flag; the PDP has so many aspirants jostling for the ticket without a clear cut leader in view.

The race for the ticket has recently been made more complicated by the flurry of defections into the party from the APC by politicians who are openly known to covert the PDP presidential ticket.

Prominent among these are the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, the governor of Sokoto state, Aminu Tambuwal and former governor of Kano state, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Earlier in 2017, former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who has never hidden his presidential ambition had also moved back to the PDP from the APC for the third time. There is Dr. Sule Lamido. Gombe State, Alhaji Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo is also in the race.

The erstwhile APC who are returning to the PDP have come with loads of seeming winning cards to the bargain. They have all returned to the party with several supporters including governors, senators and members of the House of Representatives and others in tow. Their movement back to the party has unsettled the apple cart within the party.

What is worrisome is that they have come back to a party that already has many ambitious aspirants who, unlike the returnees, remained loyal to the party.

Prominent among these people are the former acting chairman of the party, Senator Ahmed Makarfi who helped stir the party out of turbulence following the crisis that rocked the PDP after the loss of the 2015 election. There is also the former Jigawa state governor, Alhaji Sule Lamido who, like Makarfi, weathered the storm at the most critical period.

The challenge of making a choice from this bunch of brilliant and eminently qualified contestants is often shaped by five Nigerians of immense influence. The Big Five, as they are collectively known, have the financial muscle, goodwill and contacts to sway the PDP presidential flag in their choice direction. The Big Five are former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former military president Ibrahim Babangida; former head of state, Abdulsalami Abubakar; former Army chief and minister of defence, Theophilus Danjuma and national security adviser, Aliyu Mohammed Gusau. Their combined impact pervades the polity. After all these years, the still call the shot on many issues in the polity.

The common thread that ties these respected persons is their period of service in the Nigerian Army. At different times in the last 20 years, they have controlled the political levers of the nation. No doubt they played a key role in the political dynamics of the nation. Since 1998, these men have largely determined the leader of the nation. They have done this without hitch until recently when they disagreed with the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari.

Now, they are shopping for a candidate who is politically strong enough within the PDP that can give Buhari a run for his money. This seemingly simple assignment, which they previously sorted (at previous times) without much trouble, has become a hard nut to crack. From the choices available, they have not been able to find a candidate without much political baggage. As things currently stand, all the key aspirants have been making serious effort to win the favour of all or a majority of the Big Five.

For instance, Atiku Abubakar swallowed his pride to approach Obasanjo, but his former boss reportedly said he would not support him. The entire PDP NWC also visited Obasanjo to plead his indulgence ‘as the father of the nation’. Other visitors to Obasanjo’s Presidential Library for ‘consultation’ include Saraki and Lamido. So far, only Lamido appears to have found favour with Obasanjo. However, Obasanjo had openly denounced his membership of the PDP by destroying his identity card in public. In recent times, he has propped up other political groups, while claiming retirement from active politics.

The PDP’s timetable for the collection of nomination and expression of interest forms has elapsed as the leadership waits a pronouncement from the Big Five. This has created a lull in serious political activities within party. A source told our reporters, “you can see that nobody is spending serious money yet. Everyone is waiting. As soon as the Big Five indicate interest in a particular candidate, you will see a change in the tempo of activities. They make up their mind, possibly this week.”

Drawing a parallel between the Big Five in the African animal world-the lion, leopard, rhino, buffalo and elephant, it is interesting to note the power, strength and speed with which these animals, like the Nigerian Big Five exert to dominate their environment and keep the less endowed as their perpetual prey.
Who are the Big Five?

The chairman of the of this exclusive group of influential Nigerians is former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida. He is credited with the wise counsel to release Obasanjo from prison to contest the presidential election of 1999.

He hinged his reason on the fact that since the presumed winner of the 1993 presidential election, Chief Moshood Abiola had died; another Yoruba (particularly from the Egba) should be allowed to become the president as part of the healing process at that time.

Bagangida’s position was bought by General Abdulsalmi Abubakar who was head of state at that time. Obasanjo’s PDP won the election. Babangida was made a patron of the PDP, a position he holds till date.

Between them, the Big Five have controlled the direction of the nation’s politics in the last 20 years. However, Buhari emergence on the scene and his apparent independence at prosecuting an agenda that is averse to the interest has threatened to dislodge the hold of the Big Five.

CHIEF OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: Perpetual Fighter against Nigerian Presidents

Twice he superintended the smooth transition of power to an elected civilian president. In 1979, after serving as Military Head of State for three years, he handed over power to President Shehu Shagari to end his 21-year career as a soldier. His severe criticism of the Gen. Sani Abacha dictatorship led to his incarceration on trumped up allegations of plotting a coup against Abacha. Released from prison after Abacha’s death, he became the first former military ruler to return to power as a civilian in 1999. He served out the constitutionally allowed eight years-two terms of four years each. He was succeeded by President Umaru Yar’Adua. Obasanjo was known to heap a lot of blame of Yar’Adua. Though he welcomed President Goodluck Jonathan who took over after Yar’Adua’s death, Obasanjo soon turned the heat against him. President Muhammadu Buhari was Obasanjo’s clear choice over Jonathan in the 2015 presidential election, but he has since gone back into the trenches to fire salvos of biting condemnation against Buhari.

Among the Big Five, no other matches Obasanjo’s global capacity credential. He nearly got elected as United Nations Secretary General if not for a sustained campaign against him led by Nobel Laureate, Prof. Wole Soyinka. But this has not diminished the former president’s reckoning on the international scene, where he continues to champion development issues in leadership, capacity-building, democracy and conflict resolution. He founded the Africa Leadership Forum in 1988. His international exposure may have started with participation in the UN Peacekeeping Force in the Congo in the 1960s. He later consolidated his place as a respected voice out of Africa by making Nigeria a staunch supporter of the efforts to free South Africa from apartheid.

His friendship with former American President Jimmy Carter also played a key role in paving a way for him in the group of respected world leaders. At different times, he has been appointed by the UN to mediate in conflicts in Africa and other parts of the world, including conflicts in Angola, Burundi, Namibia, Mozambique and South Africa.

Obasanjo was appointed Special Envoy of the United Nations to the Great Lakes region to mediate on the conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2009. Currently, he serves as the Chair of the African Union panel of enquiry on the crisis in South Sudan.

He is arguably, the only Nigerian leader who has the ear of the world. Being an influential member of different international bodies including the InterAction Council of Former Heads of State and Government, Eminent Persons Group of the African, Caribbean and Pacific States and African Progress Panel, he has the aptitude to mobilise substantial international pressure against for or against person.

GEN. ABDULSALAMI ABUBAKAR: Respected for Keeping His Word

He retired on May 29, 1999 as a Military Head of State after a 32-year career in the Nigerian Army. He succeeded Gen. Sani Abacha upon Abacha’s death. He is credited with modifying the 1979 constitution and conducting an elections in which Chief Olusegun Obasanjo emerged as president. Not many people believed he would keep to his of handing over power within one year of assuming office. For this singular effort which became a milestone in Nigeria’s political development, Abubakar been invited to monitor elections in some African countries. He presided over the 2003 peace talks between former Liberian President Charles Taylor and the opposing rebels.

GEN. IBRAHIM BABANGIDA: Shot Himself in the Foot

He could have easily been ranked in the same class (if not higher) than Obasanjo and possibly would have had the distinction of becoming serving as military leader and returning to govern Nigeria again as a civilian; if he had not annulled the June 12, 1993 presidential election. General Ibrahim Babangida imagined himself as Nigeria’s acclaimed leader; so much that he jettisoned the title ‘Head of State’ and opted for ‘President’, though he was never elected and seized power in a coup that ousted Muhammadu Buhari in December 1985. Of late, the former self-styled military president, has betrayed his troubled soul and the trauma he is forced to live with by seeking commendation for conducting the freest election in Nigeria (June 12 presidential election, which was assumedly won by Chief Moshood Abiola). Nonetheless Babangida continues to wield enormous influence on account of enormous and generousity while in power. He is the only one among the Big Five who enjoys enduring and extensive goodwill from loyalists both in the military and across political divides. His Minna Hilltop Mansion home is a Mecca of sorts to politicians who aspire to key offices in the land.

GEN. THEOPHILUS DANJUMA: Wealthy and Influential

With an estimated wealth of USD1 billion, former Nigerian Minister of Defence, Lt.-Gen Theophilus Danjuma is one of the most sought after power broker in Nigeria. Every serious presidential aspirant in Nigeria must seek Danjuma’s understanding, not only to put in a good for their quest, but for financial support. His wife, Daisy served as a Senator

GEN. ALIYU GUSAU: The Spy Who Wants to Rule

Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, a retired Lieutenant General served in the Nigerian Army for 29 years in different senior level security, defence, and military roles. Some of these offices include y Minister of Defence, served as National Security Adviser to two different presidents, Chief of Army Staff, headed different intelligence agencies, and was Commandant of the Nigerian Defence Academy.

As National Security Advisor to Obasanjo, Gusau remained in office during most of Obasanjo’s presidency.[5] He left office to compete in the 2006 People’s Democratic Party (PDP) primaries for presidential candidate, but lost. He returned to that office under Acting President Goodluck Jonathan. Again, he made an unsuccessful bid for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential ticket in 2010.